Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Harney County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Harney County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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.puz-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Harney County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Population growth had been declining
- Now remained stable since 2020
- This stabilizing is despite natural decline
- Steady increases in migration
- New subdivisions in UGBs to accommodate new population
- County now expected to remain stable in it's population
- UGBs not absorbing population as in 2022 forecast

---

# Harney at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Harney </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,495 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.51% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.32 (3,694 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Harney Employment Changes

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1,064"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[18,22,35,26,0,13,12],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 18","Year: 1998 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 22","Year: 2003 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 35","Year: 2008 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 26","Year: 2013 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 0","Year: 2018 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 13","Year: 2023 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 12"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[237,281,253,252,222,268,300],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 237","Year: 1998 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 281","Year: 2003 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 253","Year: 2008 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 252","Year: 2013 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 222","Year: 2018 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 268","Year: 2023 County: Harney Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 300"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[375,494,246,0,0,0,0],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Harney Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 375","Year: 1998 County: Harney Industry: Manufacturing 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72","Year: 2008 County: Harney Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 63","Year: 2013 County: Harney Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 0","Year: 2018 County: Harney Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 86","Year: 2023 County: Harney Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 89"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,99,182,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unclassified","legendgroup":"Unclassified","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":54.860938148609392},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Harney County Job 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---

# Harney Migration Flows

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---

# Harney Population

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Harney's population has been on the decline but is expected to stabilize moving forward.
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---

# Harney Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural change has sharply fallen and net migration will need to increase to stabilize the population.
]

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---

# Harney Births

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---

# Harney Deaths

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---

# Harney Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

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The population aged 65 and older has continued to grown while out migration of young populations creates a "top heavy" population structure.
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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 232","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 187","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Harney Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Most population decline has been observed in the White population, while the AIAN population remains stable and the Hispanic population slowly grows.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Harney UGB Population Changes

---

# Harney UGBs: Burns in Context

.pux-right[
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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.29% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.06% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,494 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,487 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,407 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.54% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.27% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.60 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.33 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.17 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,308 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $26,658 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $41,374 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.72% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.42% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Harney County: Burns UGB Boundaries

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# Burns UGB Pop Forecast

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# Burns UGB Pop Forecast

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# Harney UGBs: Hines in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Harney_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.88% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.99% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.97% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 575 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 689 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 723 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.87% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.50% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.93 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.50 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $20,566 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $40,917 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $47,321 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.27% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Harney County: Hines UGB Boundaries

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# Hines UGB Pop Forecast

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# Hines UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts